sdvsvsdav
"你幾時 prove 到 DCF 出黎個數係 unbiased 又 consistent estimator"
can you differentiate estimator and mathematical model?
請會員「張六常@躺平」繼續
請會員「張六常@躺平 」同「sdvsvsdav」入一入黎
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歡迎兩位係度拗交
sdvsvsdav
請會員「張六常@躺平」繼續
sdvsvsdav
請會員「張六常@躺平」繼續
交就我嗌, 嘢就你學?
一個字都睇唔明
開波未? 好悶。
咩事
輕輕一推
Miller, M., & Modigliani, F. (1961). Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares. The Journal of Business, 34(4), 411-433. Retrieved June 11, 2021, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2351143
Derivation of DCF model under three assumptions
(note intrinsic value must be = actual price under these assumptions)
Very easy proof.
Derivation of DCF model under three assumptions
(note intrinsic value must be = actual price under these assumptions)
Very easy proof.
你24嗰隻英文字母背好未？
張六常睇完記得覆？
比小弟學下野同開心下
推
張六常: "冇 formal justification e.g. Benford's law / Discounted cash flow 都可以係 theory 。"https://lih.kg/rEpNaQX
How about MM 1961? Is it a formal justification?
張六常 plz reply
How about MM 1961? Is it a formal justification?
張六常 plz reply
modern "formal justification" of DCF model was posted before.
Post it here for reference.
https://www.johnhcochrane.com/research-all/asset-pricing
(download the sample chapter from author's website)
formula 1.9 on page 15
Post it here for reference.
https://www.johnhcochrane.com/research-all/asset-pricing
(download the sample chapter from author's website)
formula 1.9 on page 15
https://lih.kg/aOOzrMV
張六常: ”Intrinsic value 係冇一致嘅定義，而且係一個 vague 嘅 concept ，Present value 就唔同“
Me: 喺Neo classical finance／economics，expected present value of an asset 就係asset 既intrinsic value
張六常:
1. 呢個 definition 係 under economic framework，大學 year 1 stuff ，同我所講嘅 intrinsic value 唔同，現實 finance 更常見嘅 intrinsic value 係講緊一個數值去判斷 security 是否值得去投資
2. Discounted cash flow models for equity used projected cash flows, not expected cash flows in practice.
所以你用緊個 definition 係牛頭不對馬嘴
大教授暗示咗 projected cash flows = expected cash flows --> output from DCF models = NPV = intrinsic value (as you defined), which is not true in practice.
Me:
The valuation result of DCF model is the intrinsic value of the firm (if FCFF is used) or equity (if FCFE is uesd). If the actual price in market =/= the intrinsic value of equity evaluated by DCF model, there is underprice / overprice (market is not fully efficient), you can then buy low sell high. The actions of arbitragers will push back to equilibrium.
In fact, some target prices you saw in research report are evaluated by DCF models. This is true in practice.
However, it doesn't really matter. We are discussing the "formal justification" of DCF model, practical issues are tangential here.
張六常: ”Intrinsic value 係冇一致嘅定義，而且係一個 vague 嘅 concept ，Present value 就唔同“
Me: 喺Neo classical finance／economics，expected present value of an asset 就係asset 既intrinsic value
張六常:
1. 呢個 definition 係 under economic framework，大學 year 1 stuff ，同我所講嘅 intrinsic value 唔同，現實 finance 更常見嘅 intrinsic value 係講緊一個數值去判斷 security 是否值得去投資
2. Discounted cash flow models for equity used projected cash flows, not expected cash flows in practice.
所以你用緊個 definition 係牛頭不對馬嘴
大教授暗示咗 projected cash flows = expected cash flows --> output from DCF models = NPV = intrinsic value (as you defined), which is not true in practice.Me:
The valuation result of DCF model is the intrinsic value of the firm (if FCFF is used) or equity (if FCFE is uesd). If the actual price in market =/= the intrinsic value of equity evaluated by DCF model, there is underprice / overprice (market is not fully efficient), you can then buy low sell high. The actions of arbitragers will push back to equilibrium.
In fact, some target prices you saw in research report are evaluated by DCF models. This is true in practice.
However, it doesn't really matter. We are discussing the "formal justification" of DCF model, practical issues are tangential here.
https://lih.kg/aOOzsmV
張六常:
"大教授計完 present value 就會跟返個數去買股票，唔滿意時會調到個 WACC 勁低去推返個預算價"
Me: WACC is determined by cost of debt, cost of equity (based on asset pricing model such as CAPM) and Debt-Equity Ratio, all are determined objectively or from public sources, how to adjust?
張六常:
"大教授計完 present value 就會跟返個數去買股票，唔滿意時會調到個 WACC 勁低去推返個預算價"
Me: WACC is determined by cost of debt, cost of equity (based on asset pricing model such as CAPM) and Debt-Equity Ratio, all are determined objectively or from public sources, how to adjust?
lm
pish
where is 張六常?
according to his post in lihkg,
張六常 seem to be a graduate from HKU E&F, how come
張六常 seem to be a graduate from HKU E&F, how come
FYI 佢係荷蘭讀master.
佢唔會上水架啦，好似學術台某D user咁 , e.g. 不談風月（會員編號#21699，改左名叫有冇人係咁）、今朝冇酒，
淨係識開垃圾post/屈人係兒登仔（但自己又成日上兒登開垃圾post
)，炒左車就扮睇唔到，
本業又做唔掂（無野pub)
佢唔會上水架啦，好似學術台某D user咁 , e.g. 不談風月（會員編號#21699，改左名叫有冇人係咁）、今朝冇酒，
淨係識開垃圾post/屈人係兒登仔（但自己又成日上兒登開垃圾post
)，炒左車就扮睇唔到，本業又做唔掂（無野pub)
愛情波涵數呢？
喺圍爐post見佢地常駐
佢講佢本科
不過佢自稱既未必可信 有玩膠成份
不過佢自稱既未必可信 有玩膠成份
