'Recently, an H.C. Wainwright analyst said that Covaxin “has generated antibody levels comparable to those in human convalescent serum.” This apparently bodes well for the vaccine getting approved. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Kristen Kluska said that it is a whole-virion vaccine. This means it targets the whole virus unlike other established vaccines against the specific proteins of the coronavirus.'
'...Let’s assume that Ocugen will charge $25 per dose for Covaxin.
Next, let’s assume that just 10% of the U.S. population gets the Covaxin vaccine, or 33 million people. Therefore, the total revenue to the Bharat Biotech-Ocugen partnership will be $825 million. Let’s say 20% of that goes to overhead and market costs. The profits to be distributed will be $660 million.
Now Ocugen gets to have 45% of that $660 million in profits, or $297 million. Let’s call it $300 million. Here is how I would value that. Assuming the vaccine is good for 10 years, the revenue would work out to $3 billion. That is 58% higher than the $1.9 billion valuation for OCGN stock today.
This represents a potential price gain of up to $16.23 per share (i.e., 58% higher than the Feb. 19 price of $10.27 for OCGN stock).'