其實睇番538 Trump Trump 贏嘅機會係細過the same time point in 2016 ( 10% 而家 vs 35% in 2016 )
D poll 係會錯但Poll 錯誤嘅機率係correlated 嘅...
如果Trump 輸左Penn ,佢當選嘅機率只會跌到1%...
佢一定要贏曬 Arizona , Florida 同 North Carolina ,先證明到d poll 係有5% 以上 error ,咁Penn 先有機會toss-up ...
你地可唔可以分析多次呢3個州?
個post 太長太多其他野唔係好搵到