紐約原油(WTI)及布蘭特原油(Brent Crude)是商品期貨交易市場上最主要的標準原油(benchmark crude)。到底兩者之間有何分別？
紐約原油的產地並非在紐約，而是於美國中西部內陸德州、路易斯安娜州及北達科他州等地開採，但因其在紐約商品交易所交易才把中文命名為紐約原油，若以英文直接翻譯則為西德州中間基原油(West Texas intermediate)。 布蘭特原油泛指在歐洲北海油田開採的原油，於倫敦洲際交易所進行交易。而布蘭特地區的油井是北海油田中最著名的油井之一，故以其命名，但最後一座布蘭特油井亦即將封閉，布蘭特原油也將變成跟紐約原油一樣「有名無實」。 然而並非所有在以上產地開採的原油都可被稱為「紐約原油」或「布蘭特原油」，因為他們只是原油品質的評價指標。紐約原油及布蘭特原油皆屬於低硫原油，二者在品質上主要的分別如下:
紐約原油含硫量:0.24% API比重:39.638
布蘭特原油含硫量:0.37% API比重:38
理論上含硫量越低，原油在提煉時的難度及複雜度便越低；而API比重高則代表原油的液體密度較高，重量亦越輕。紐約原油的品質略較布蘭特原油優勝，但整體上二者皆為優質的低硫輕質原油。
雖然紐約原油的品質略高，但在近年布蘭特期油的價錢卻比其高出一線。出於紐約期油的走勢受美國本土需求影響，其油價反映的是美國及周邊地區市場的供需；而布蘭特期油則反映全球市場的供需。這是因為紐約原油的交割地點在美國內陸，而布蘭特原油則不設固定地點，能以臨港地點或直接海運作交收，對美洲外的國家而言其運輸費用較為便宜。
為何布蘭特期油不會跌到負價？
紐約期油在早前跌至負數的原因是其合約只接受實物交割，若買家無法履行交割責任，只能以更低的價錢或倒貼其他買家接手其合約。而布蘭特期油則同時接受實物及現金結算，買家在期貨合約到期時可直接以現金結算，故其價錢在理論上不會跌至負數。
小弟IG: https://www.instagram.com/50am_investing/
會定時出下文，有興趣可以FOLLOW下
入黎話你知紐約原油(WTI)及布蘭特原油既分別，同埋點解布蘭特期油唔會跌到負價
你傻嫁無野做
31 回覆
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5 Dislike
推下
老實講，WTI個價低啲係合理，但負油價應該係投資者俾人不問價斬倉先會咁，所以後尾有上番正數。
而布蘭特期油則同時接受實物及現金結算，買家在期貨合約到期時可直接以現金結算，故其價錢在理論上不會跌至負數。非也，係有可能的。只不過可能性低好多。
只要現時情況（疫情，油產量協議）繼續，全球儲油空間愈嚟愈少，少到最後冇晒任何空間放且在原油不能停產嘅前提下，Brent期油價格都係有可能負。
再次重申，只係可能性低好多。
咁而家剩幾多空間
通常識炒但係唔識長篇大論寫野都係最快破產果d人
識炒嘅先唔會同你長篇大論寫篇野出黎
繼續炒吓賺吓錢好過啦，會寫文嘅都係想出吓名啫
繼續炒吓賺吓錢好過啦，會寫文嘅都係想出吓名啫
岩岩返去查左陣資料
我睇路透社有篇文咁講:Brent contracts are settled in cash so there is no risk of going negative but they could drop significantly.
“Nobody will pay you to take cash but they will pay you to take the oil they cannot handle,” said one senior industry source, asking not to be named. “Brent is an indicator for sentiment rather than a physical metric.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-price-explainer/why-brent-oil-wont-follow-u-s-wti-futures-below-zero-idUSKCN2232AE
上ICE個網有寫到月Brent既Delivery/Settlement Terms:
The ICE Brent Crude futures contract is a deliverable contract based on EFP delivery with an option to cash settle against the ICE Brent Index price for the last trading day of the futures contract. The Exchange shall publish a cash settlement price (the ICE Brent Index price) on the next trading day following the last trading day for the contract month.
但WTI只有Delivery Methods
(A) Delivery shall be made at the Magellan East Houston terminal, and shall be made in accordance with all applicable Federal executive orders and all applicable Federal, State and local laws and regulations.
(B) Delivery is to be made by Product Transfer Order (“PTO”) for in-line (or in-system) transfer or in-tank transfer of title to the Buyer.
(C) Buyer and Seller’s ability to make or take delivery is subject to a Magellan System Services Agreement, Software Terms of Use, or other documentation governing such delivery process.
我理解係BRENT FUTURE到期時可以要錢唔要貨？係咪我理解錯左，求指正
我睇路透社有篇文咁講:Brent contracts are settled in cash so there is no risk of going negative but they could drop significantly.
“Nobody will pay you to take cash but they will pay you to take the oil they cannot handle,” said one senior industry source, asking not to be named. “Brent is an indicator for sentiment rather than a physical metric.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-price-explainer/why-brent-oil-wont-follow-u-s-wti-futures-below-zero-idUSKCN2232AE
上ICE個網有寫到月Brent既Delivery/Settlement Terms:
The ICE Brent Crude futures contract is a deliverable contract based on EFP delivery with an option to cash settle against the ICE Brent Index price for the last trading day of the futures contract. The Exchange shall publish a cash settlement price (the ICE Brent Index price) on the next trading day following the last trading day for the contract month.
但WTI只有Delivery Methods
(A) Delivery shall be made at the Magellan East Houston terminal, and shall be made in accordance with all applicable Federal executive orders and all applicable Federal, State and local laws and regulations.
(B) Delivery is to be made by Product Transfer Order (“PTO”) for in-line (or in-system) transfer or in-tank transfer of title to the Buyer.
(C) Buyer and Seller’s ability to make or take delivery is subject to a Magellan System Services Agreement, Software Terms of Use, or other documentation governing such delivery process.
我理解係BRENT FUTURE到期時可以要錢唔要貨？係咪我理解錯左，求指正
其實岩
當減產成本太高，Brent期油同實物油都可以負
變相俾錢你處理左啲原油佢，你喜歡用舊錢起倉又好，倒落海又好，總之賠左俾你，跟住點處理就貴客自理
當減產成本太高，Brent期油同實物油都可以負
變相俾錢你處理左啲原油佢，你喜歡用舊錢起倉又好，倒落海又好，總之賠左俾你，跟住點處理就貴客自理
ok
報導：https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-oil-market-is-running-out-of-storage-options-2020-04-21
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/22/oil-prices-heres-how-oil-storage-works-and-why-capacity-matters.html
原source：https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/bdwpkmyqpmn/US%20CRUDE%20OIL%20STORAGE%20CAPACITY.pdf
美國全國已經用咗57% storage capacity , 剩係Cushing 77%.
以目前上升速率Cushing 5月第一個禮拜就爆，全國7-8個禮拜就爆
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/goldman-sachs-oil-markets-in-inflection-phase-after-historic-week.html
全球storage 5月尾爆滿
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/22/oil-prices-heres-how-oil-storage-works-and-why-capacity-matters.html
原source：https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/bdwpkmyqpmn/US%20CRUDE%20OIL%20STORAGE%20CAPACITY.pdf
美國全國已經用咗57% storage capacity , 剩係Cushing 77%.
以目前上升速率Cushing 5月第一個禮拜就爆，全國7-8個禮拜就爆
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/goldman-sachs-oil-markets-in-inflection-phase-after-historic-week.html
全球storage 5月尾爆滿
留名學嘢
WTI investor因為怕要實物交割
，所以貼錢平倉
，因此出現負油價。
而Brent，冇錯，係現金交割，所以investor唔洗怕因為實物交割而衍生出嘅storage + logistics costs。
心想：即期價格最多咪跌到零，我又唔係買緊physically 一桶桶油
呢個現象嘅產生，就係基於settlement terms 唔洗實物交割。
呢到亦解釋咗你上面篇文
(Brent期油價格係一種信心指標，並非實物價格）
>意思即係投資嘅唔係一桶桶Brent油，而係投資緊佢嘅價值
咁會發生乜事呢？就會出現即期Brent crude price 並非實際現貨價。 如上文所述：
(Brent期油合約持有人擔心期油價格與現貨市場脫節。近來一個月，原油期期與即期現貨之價差創出歷史新高）
"Dated Brent is typically worth up to $2 more or less than the futures price but against the backdrop of so much oversupply it widened last week to more than $10 a barrel. The extent of the gap implies a downward correction is inevitable."
(即期現貨通常比期貨價格最多高或低2美元，但在供過於求的情況下，上周兩者價差擴大至每桶10美以上。價差之大預示着向下修正是無可避免的。）
>意思即係話即期15蚊，以前現貨可能係13-17蚊。但近排跌到5蚊以下，而且仲會跌得低啲
==================
好喇，咁你而家知即期價同現貨價係有可能唔同喇喎，而且基於供過於求嘅問題，現貨價會比即期價十蚊以上
返去我一開頭所講，如果疫情未完+OPEC國不大量減產 (即供過於求嘅問題持續，原油供應不斷累積），會令到全球海陸儲油空間不斷下降至零。
亦因為停產成本過大，到期時Brent生產商會貼錢畀油輪運走
你話，油輪而家不斷都運緊油走啦
，洗乜畀錢佢走
咁如果油輪商玩嘢唔走呢
？你冇得停產，你嘅油就冇位放喇喎，會污染北海，罰得仲甘
所以生產商必定會貼錢求佢走，而且油輪公司識玩嘅話基本上個價係任佢開，只要唔高過停產成本
基於上文所述如果現貨價係負十蚊，咁即期價就零蚊
咁如果現貨價負30,50,100蚊呢，即期價會唔會守得住喺零蚊？
雖然你唔喺投資緊一桶桶油，但到期時佢嘅價值會唔會只係零？
"Brent is an indicator for sentiment rather than a physical metric."
==================
總結一句：WTI係買家唔要貨導致負油價，而Brent負油價就會因為賣家唔要貨所導致
我想再次見證神蹟，順便驗證埋Brent不會負呢個神話
，所以貼錢平倉，因此出現負油價。而Brent，冇錯，係現金交割，所以investor唔洗怕因為實物交割而衍生出嘅storage + logistics costs。
心想：即期價格最多咪跌到零，我又唔係買緊physically 一桶桶油
呢個現象嘅產生，就係基於settlement terms 唔洗實物交割。
呢到亦解釋咗你上面篇文
Brent is an indicator for sentiment rather than a physical metric.
(Brent期油價格係一種信心指標，並非實物價格）
>意思即係投資嘅唔係一桶桶Brent油，而係投資緊佢嘅價值
咁會發生乜事呢？就會出現即期Brent crude price 並非實際現貨價。 如上文所述：
Brent future contract holders are concerned
about the disconnect with the physical market.
For about a month, there has been a record gap between futures and the underlying physical Dated Brent benchmark.
(Brent期油合約持有人擔心期油價格與現貨市場脫節。近來一個月，原油期期與即期現貨之價差創出歷史新高）
"Dated Brent is typically worth up to $2 more or less than the futures price but against the backdrop of so much oversupply it widened last week to more than $10 a barrel. The extent of the gap implies a downward correction is inevitable."
(即期現貨通常比期貨價格最多高或低2美元，但在供過於求的情況下，上周兩者價差擴大至每桶10美以上。價差之大預示着向下修正是無可避免的。）
>意思即係話即期15蚊，以前現貨可能係13-17蚊。但近排跌到5蚊以下，而且仲會跌得低啲
==================
好喇，咁你而家知即期價同現貨價係有可能唔同喇喎，而且基於供過於求嘅問題，現貨價會比即期價十蚊以上
返去我一開頭所講，如果疫情未完+OPEC國不大量減產 (即供過於求嘅問題持續，原油供應不斷累積），會令到全球海陸儲油空間不斷下降至零。
亦因為停產成本過大，到期時Brent生產商會貼錢畀油輪運走
你話，油輪而家不斷都運緊油走啦
，洗乜畀錢佢走咁如果油輪商玩嘢唔走呢
？你冇得停產，你嘅油就冇位放喇喎，會污染北海，罰得仲甘所以生產商必定會貼錢求佢走，而且油輪公司識玩嘅話基本上個價係任佢開
，只要唔高過停產成本基於上文所述如果現貨價係負十蚊，咁即期價就零蚊
咁如果現貨價負30,50,100蚊呢，即期價會唔會守得住喺零蚊？
雖然你唔喺投資緊一桶桶油，但到期時佢嘅價值會唔會只係零？
"Brent is an indicator for sentiment rather than a physical metric."
==================
總結一句：WTI係買家唔要貨導致負油價，而Brent負油價就會因為賣家唔要貨所導致
我想再次見證神蹟，順便驗證埋Brent不會負呢個神話
lm
沙特d油呢？
On9現金結算點負呀
我同交易所計數就得
你明唔明點解油價要負
係冇counterparty 平倉
擺明有人做世界 關埋門打狗
我同交易所計數就得
你明唔明點解油價要負
係冇counterparty 平倉
擺明有人做世界 關埋門打狗